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Will tactical voting actually work in this election? Use our tool for the realist view

By looking at the last two general elections in particular, we are able to assess each parties’ chances of actually winning a particular seat.

After classifying each party on Leave or Remain grounds, we then present you with the party which suits your own preference on the Brexit debate and has the best chance of claiming that particular seat. 

In 542 seats, we don’t believe this tactical voting will make a difference, due to the whopping majorities that the Labour and Conservative parties have. However, in other more marginal seats, a swing of just a few percentage points can make all the difference between winning and losing.

Below, we outline the criteria for how we decide if a party is a realistic choice for you.

If you’re a Brexiteer

There are four parties across Britain and Northern Ireland which back Brexit in some form and have a realistic chance of winning at least one constituency.

There are the criteria which decide whether we advise you to vote for each individual Brexit-backing party.

Brexit Party:

  1. If the Conservatives haven’t won the seat since at least 1992 (or since constituency creation);
  2. If Ukip beat the Conservatives, and gained a vote share of over 20 per cent, in 2015;
  3. And if the Conservatives got less than 30 per cent of the 2017 vote.

Conservatives:

  1. Any other seat in England, Wales or Scotland, where the Brexit Party do not have a realistic chance (as per the three criteria above).

DUP:

  1. If in Northern Ireland and the DUP are standing in that constituency.

UUP:

  1. The DUP have stood down in a select few seats for the UUP. In these seats, Brexiteers’ best choice is the vote for the compromise-Brexit UUP.

If you’re a Remainer:

There are seven parties across Britain and Northern Ireland which have some form of Remain-leaning policy and have a realistic chance of winning at least one constituency.

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